To complete this panorama of the historical moment that Cuba is living through today, we must consider the implications of Fidel's gradual withdrawal from public life and the approaching generational renewal of Cuba’s revolutionary leadership at the highest levels.

Since Fidel fell gravely ill in August 2006, Cubans have gradually become accustomed to his public absence. Having recovered from life-threatening intestinal surgery, he is reportedly in good health and is mentally alert, enjoying his semi-retirement surrounded by his extended family. In his “Reflections of Comrade Fidel”, published in the Cuban media and reprinted widely in the foreign press, he continues the struggle, commenting on global affairs and meditating on the crisis facing humanity. He is consulted on key decisions, but the day-to-day leadership of the government is now firmly in the hands of a capable team headed by President Raul Castro.

The notion that Raul is just waiting for Fidel to die so he can take Cuba down “the Chinese road” is a fantasy of the revolution’s enemies. Whatever political differences there may be between Fidel and Raul, they are tactical and stylistic, not programmatic. There is no indication that Raul intends to turn traitor to the cause to which he, like Fidel, has dedicated his entire adult life. More importantly, Cuba has a collective leadership. Fidel and Raul have different strengths: Fidel is charismatic, brilliant, creative, improvised and very much a hands-on leader; Raul is more methodical, team-oriented, practical and concise, preferring to work quietly behind the scenes. Raul’s main task is to prepare the new generations to take over.

While there has never been a personality cult in Cuba, Fidel’s influence among many of his followers transcends politics. More than a political leader, Fidel is a spiritual leader in the secular sense. In his speech marking the 50th anniversary of the revolution, Raul reminded Cubans: “An individual does not make history, we know this, but some indispensable people have the capacity to decisively influence the course of events. Fidel is one of them; nobody doubts it, not even his most bitter enemies.

“Ever since his early youth he adopted as his own one of [Jose] Martí’s thoughts: ‘All of the glory in the world can fit into a kernel of corn.’ This he turned into his shield from everything that is superfluous or transient, into his main weapon to transform praises and honours – even if well-deserved – into greater humility, honesty, fighting spirit and love for the truth, which he has invariably placed above all else.”

While Fidel may no longer be indispensable today, as an individual he is irreplaceable. For as long as Fidel was at the helm of the revolutionary government his immense personal authority tended to overshadow the role of institutions, for better or for worse but mostly for the better. When Fidel’s friend, Colombian author and Nobel laureate Gabriel Garcia Marquez, was asked why the Cuban Revolution had not fallen like the USSR, he replied: “Fidel is at the same time the head of government and the leader of the opposition.” That is, Fidel was always the revolution’s sternest loyal critic.

Havana University historian Jesus Arboleya has aptly observed: “It is logical to assume that Fidel Castro’s legacy will have a tremendous influence in the future of Cuba ... if [his enemies] have been unable to defeat the mortal human being, I can’t figure out how they will face the perfected myth of his memory. In this sense, Fidel will continue to be one of the pillars of the Cuban Revolution.”

The approaching 6th Party Congress, likely to be held in late 2010 or in 2011, will be the last presided over by the historicos, the generation of leaders that led Cuba’s working people to victory in 1959. Not only is a generational leadership transition inevitable, but as Luis Sexto wrote on August 5, the “political future of a socialist Cuba will not be a future of charismatic men and women. The historic conditions that forged unique, original figures filled with historic credit no longer exist. It will be a future of institutions, primarily the Communist Party, which will have to exercise its power with an open and democratic spirit”,

According to Rafael Hernandez, the revolution “must go forward and leave more and more room for the new generations. Those new generations are demanding capability, power, a degree of decision over their own ideas, their own problems and criteria about the meaning of a socialist society. And I think that the socialism of the future is the socialism of the young.”